I enjoyed a perfect baseball weekend the last two days: perfect summer weather, tailgating, and the White Sox beating the Cubs. At Sunday’s game, I got to see live for the first time the Infield Fly Rule in play. The Infield Fly Rule illustrates two Business Rule Truths [and one Baseball Truth].
Truth #1 – Sometimes a Decision Should Be Based on What You Predict Will Happen
What’s unique about the Infield Fly Rule is that a decision is made based on what the umpire predicts could happen. The Infield Fly Rule applies only when there are fewer than two outs, and there is a force play at third or home. In these situations, if a fair fly ball is a hit that, in the umpire's judgment would be caught by an infielder with ordinary effort, the batter is out regardless of whether the ball is actually caught in flight.The purpose of the rule is to prevent infielders from intentionally dropping pop-ups to get multiple outs by forcing out the runners on base (which is what was happening when the rule as written, in 1895). Baseball introduced a rule that automates a decision based on a prediction formed from analyzing historical data (infielders dropping pop-ups).
The Infield Fly Rule is the baseball equivalent of predictive analytics plus rules technology. While most organizations still use business rule technology to make decisions based on real-time or historical data, we see increasing use and opportunity to make decisions based on predictions. There are times when decisions should be made based on what you predict will happen. When paired with business rule technology, analytic software can take pre-emptive actions that can also be refined as real-time data is available. Organizations combining predictive analytics plus business rules will have an edge over competitors making predictions, but not automating decisions based on those predictions.
Truth #2 – Rules Are Hard to Understand and Interpret
In researching the rule to make sure I could explain it correctly, I found another similarity to real customer situations. When you search www.mlb.com for “Infield Fly,” you are pointed to the Rulebook’s Definition of Terms. The description is hard to understand and never says that when an Infield Fly ball is declared, the batter is out, whether or not the ball is caught. The rule about the batter—rule 6.05(e)—is never referenced by the rule defining an Infield Fly! Once again, the complexity of baseball rules and the difficulty of interpretation mirror the rules of the business world.
Truth #3 – The White Sox Are Better than the Cubs
As of June 28, 2009, the White Sox career record against the Cubs is 36-35. This truth, while perhaps not self-evident and certainly not universally accepted, will remain on the books until at least September 3, 2009, the next cross-town classic. Go Sox!
I've talked a lot about business rules in the world of finance and healthcare, but check out this article that shows how business rules technology helps keep meat safe. http://www.meatinternational.com/food-safety/eds-uses-inrule-for-belgian-food-safety-system-(1483).html
So when you think meat, think rules.
I had the opportunity to hear Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer speak at the Executives Club of Chicago http://www.executivesclub.org/ today. His topic: “The Role of Innovation in Changing Economic Times.” One statement stood out from the rest. He said that when he asks CEOs what their number one challenge is, the response is overwhelmingly “I still can’t get the information I need about business performance.”
I wonder if Steve asked them “why?” And because this wasn’t just Steve and me, chewing the fat over a couple of Italian Beef sandwiches (sweet and hot peppers) and cold schooners of beer (okay, it got pretty steamy in Chicago today and a couple of cold ones sound fantastic right now), I didn’t have the opportunity to ask him. However, I have to think that the true challenge for these CEOs was getting the information they need to make better business decisions. Information is a foundation, and insight is an important step forward, but it’s not the ultimate goal. The goal is making better business decisions.
Information + Analysis = Insight
Information + Logic = Decisions
Having access to the right information is a requirement, of course. Having good analytical tools can help transform that information into insights. The second half of the challenge “to make better business decisions” is assumed, yet how you get from insight to decision is often ignored. It’s only when decision logic consistent and managed that businesses can make better business decisions.
I was washing dishes with the TV on last night and heard through a dramatic crescendo of commercial music Microsoft touting Bing as a Decision Engine. Left the dishes in the sink and took a look at Bing, which, it turns out, is just a new name for Live Search. Microsoft is trying to differentiate Bing from other search engines by positioning it not as a search engine, but a Decision Engine. Microsoft says the difference is that Bing will help people make decisions because Bing organizes information better than Google.
Once again, the sole focus of making better decisions is on information, with no regard for the logic that powers those decisions. If a financial institution gave its loan officers perfect information about loan applicants, but no guidelines on what the decision-making rules are, what would the quality and consistency of those loans be? If your physician had your healthcare records, consolidated from all the providers you’ve seen in the last 10 years, but didn’t have the latest diagnostic guidelines on an emerging illness, would she be effective in providing treatment? If asked for a dress for my birthday, would having a well-organized catalog of dresses help my husband if he didn’t know my criteria for a “good” dress?
Information is required to make decisions, but it’s rules that actually drive decisions.