I enjoyed a perfect baseball weekend the last two days: perfect summer weather, tailgating, and the White Sox beating the Cubs. At Sunday’s game, I got to see live for the first time the Infield Fly Rule in play. The Infield Fly Rule illustrates two Business Rule Truths [and one Baseball Truth].
Truth #1 – Sometimes a Decision Should Be Based on What You Predict Will Happen
What’s unique about the Infield Fly Rule is that a decision is made based on what the umpire predicts could happen. The Infield Fly Rule applies only when there are fewer than two outs, and there is a force play at third or home. In these situations, if a fair fly ball is a hit that, in the umpire's judgment would be caught by an infielder with ordinary effort, the batter is out regardless of whether the ball is actually caught in flight.The purpose of the rule is to prevent infielders from intentionally dropping pop-ups to get multiple outs by forcing out the runners on base (which is what was happening when the rule as written, in 1895). Baseball introduced a rule that automates a decision based on a prediction formed from analyzing historical data (infielders dropping pop-ups).
The Infield Fly Rule is the baseball equivalent of predictive analytics plus rules technology. While most organizations still use business rule technology to make decisions based on real-time or historical data, we see increasing use and opportunity to make decisions based on predictions. There are times when decisions should be made based on what you predict will happen. When paired with business rule technology, analytic software can take pre-emptive actions that can also be refined as real-time data is available. Organizations combining predictive analytics plus business rules will have an edge over competitors making predictions, but not automating decisions based on those predictions.
Truth #2 – Rules Are Hard to Understand and Interpret
In researching the rule to make sure I could explain it correctly, I found another similarity to real customer situations. When you search www.mlb.com for “Infield Fly,” you are pointed to the Rulebook’s Definition of Terms. The description is hard to understand and never says that when an Infield Fly ball is declared, the batter is out, whether or not the ball is caught. The rule about the batter—rule 6.05(e)—is never referenced by the rule defining an Infield Fly! Once again, the complexity of baseball rules and the difficulty of interpretation mirror the rules of the business world.
Truth #3 – The White Sox Are Better than the Cubs
As of June 28, 2009, the White Sox career record against the Cubs is 36-35. This truth, while perhaps not self-evident and certainly not universally accepted, will remain on the books until at least September 3, 2009, the next cross-town classic. Go Sox!